The recent happenings in African Arab World is a personification of an indigenous uprising against the dictatorial policies of the ‘semi-kingships’, which engulfs Tunisia , Egypt , Jordan, Yemen, Qatar and Syria . The popular anger forced Ali Zainul Abideen to leave Tunisia. The seeds of new awakening of civil rights in the region threatened the , even established dynasties , which have solid roots, since decades. President Hosni Mubarak, is at the verge of collapse , though all time robust Egyptian Army and Intelligence , came to his rescue for the transition power , at the surface , to save the country from going into complete chaos .
The newly installed Egyptian Government offered negotiations to the powerful opposition “Akhwan al Muslemeen’, amid Obama administration’s remarks that pro-government forces in Egypt were “thugs” . The streets of Cairo were turned into a battlefield at Tahrir Square, , for last 15 days, between those who support President Hosni Mubarak and their adversaries, who are demanding the leader’s immediate ouster.
The Egyptians are not ready to accept the assertion of Hosni Muabarak to step down in September – In the meanwhile USA has started demonstrating similar policy to leaving the ‘Closest Ally ‘ in the lurch .. In 1978 the deepening opposition to the Shah erupted in widespread demonstrations and rioting. Recognizing that even this level of violence had failed to crush the rebellion, the Shah abdicated the Peacock Throne and departed Iran on 16 January 1979. Despite decades of pervasive surveillance by SAVAK, working closely with CIA, the extent of public opposition to the Shah, and his sudden departure, came as a considerable surprise to the US intelligence community and national leadership. As late as 28 September 1978 the US Defense Intelligence Agency reported that the Shah "is expected to remain actively in power over the next ten years." In fact USA was interested to retain Shah on the throne , with certain political reforms , which became inevitable due to unprecedented and ruthless dictatorship of the King. But the public uprising and entry of Imam Khomeini wrecked the CIA future course of Action , even to that extent that USA even refused exiled Shah to enter into the air of USA, he died in Egypt . The then vice President of Egypt, Hosni Muabarak had witnessed the the gory details of Shah’s ouster and his awful death with Cancer when no world leader was ready even asylum in ‘ custody’.
The recent uprising of civilians or citizens in Arab , is, a directly outcome of the absence of any democtraic tradition in a fast changing world scenario of globalisation with additional contributing factors included perceptions of oppression, brutality, corruption, and extravagance. Basic functional failures of the regimes have also been blamed — economic bottlenecks, shortages and inflation; the Arab regimes’ flawed economic programs, the sudden failure of its security forces to deal with protest and demonstration and the overly centralized power structure, forced the the lava to erupt and expand .
The world is in the grip of economic and food crisis, the state-control medias will cannot keep a band on the common eyes , too long. The globalization process has exposed, or still exposing the cruel governance of the dictators viz a viz Western world.
The Egyptian activists, apparently young and secular at the core, who have been out on the streets every day since the Tehrer Square has become hub of violent activity. . One useful way to think about such revolutions is to remember 1989. There was the revolt in East Germany, which nobody expected to start, and then nobody expected to end peacefully. And then you had Romania, which no one expected to end in a fusillade of bullets... except the Romanians. President Nicolae Ceauşescu and her wife Elena Ceauşescu were killed by a firing squad on 25 Dec 1989.
What will happen after Hosni Mubarak ? The most famous face outside of Egypt is former IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei, who is well-known in the West and respected, but not universally loved, at home. His efforts to unite Egypt’s opposition behind him have had mixed results, and he seems to have been free and detained at various points during the day. The Egyptian nation is not tuned to the true democratic norms or traditions of the West, in fact the nation will continue to accept the US domination with certain ease in the provision democratic rights. But USA is not ready to accept the similar happenings as she failed to control over the return of hardest religious or institutionalized Clergy to capture the power after the exit of Shah of Iran.
It is not CIA , which created rumpus against Hosni Mubarak , which, in fact took roots from the stems of dictatorial regime of Tunisia , however the analysts of Capitol Hill are spending sleepless nights to formulate a political strategy which may not hamper any peace process in the Middle East nor damage any interests of Israel in the region.
The seismic upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt have triggered unrest elsewhere in the Arab world, particularly in Yemen and Jordan. Syria, ruled by the Baath Party since 1963 and the Assad family since 1970, also seems at first glance potentially vulnerable. It shares some passing similarities with Tunisia and Egypt, particularly economic hardship – rising prices, unemployment, poverty, and the cancellation of subsidies on basic commodities.
Yet there are also critical differences, which may lessen chances of a Tunisia-style revolution taking hold. Perhaps chief among them are the sectarian divisions within Syria. Such divisions, if unleashed by protests, could cause bloodshed and chaos similar to the experiences of Lebanon and Iraq in recent years.
“The cautionary tales of its neighbors to the east and west – Iraq and Lebanon – have only reinforced Syrian anxieties about the dangers of weakening the central government in a country with a mixed sectarian and ethnic population,” says Elias Muhanna, author of the influential Qifa Nabki blog.Syria’s population is predominantly Sunni, but the backbone of the regime is drawn from the minority Alawite community, an offshoot of the Shiite sect. The marginalized Kurdish population is also a potent factor in the country’s sectarian and ethnic composition.
In Yemen, president Ali Abdullah Saleh syas he will not seek the presidency when his term expires in 2013. Saleh has been in power for 30 years.He spoke to parliament ahead of a rally in the capital on Thursday which, echoing protests in Tunisia and Egypt, has been dubbed a "day of rage".
He spoke ahead of the planned protests, organized by civil society groups and opposition leaders in a country which suffers from high population growth, 40% unemployment, rising food prices and acute levels of malnutrition. Meanwhile, in Jordan King Abdullahon on 1st Feb, entrusted Marouf Bakhit to form a new government tasked with realizing “genuine political and economic reforms”, a Jordanian Court issued a statement. Bakhit succeeded outgoing prime minister Samir Rifai whose resignation was accepted by the King three days back, the Royal Court said.
The soft revolt can be turned into violent outburst by the citizens of the Middle East , in the comparatively secular states , event the respective regimes failed to allow or facilitate their nations to give them fresh breath of political reforms and ease out checks on civil liberties and rights as given under US Charter. Things are not all the time under the control of USA, any adventurism by CIA can be proved , at the present stage, counter-productive to give way to the ‘fundamentalism’ , or hardened religious anti-American element in the corridors of the power.
